الخميس، 21 أغسطس 2008

Times: Fear of new Mid East 'Cold War' as Syria strengthens military alliance with Russia

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James Hider, Middle East Correspondent
20/8/2008
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad headed to Moscow today to discuss an expansion of his pariah state’s military cooperation with Russia.
The trip is raising fears that the new Cold War that has erupted in the Caucasus will spill over into the Middle East, long a battleground between East and West, and crush tentative hopes for peace.
"Of course military and technical cooperation is the main issue. Weapons purchases are very important," said Mr Assad. "I think we should speed it up. Moreover, the West and Israel continue to put pressure on Russia."
Israel, like its main sponsor America, has developed close military ties with Georgia in recent years, with defence contractors supplying training and equipment to the small, US-backed state.
As Syria renews its Soviet-era close ties with Moscow, many here fear that the Middle East could once again become a theatre for the two great powers to exert their spheres of influence, militarily and politically, in the volatile region.
And with Israel and the US providing military backing to Georgia, Russia appears set to respond in kind by supporting Syria.
Already, Israeli observers worry that the chaos in the Caucasus may disrupt gas supplies to Europe and Turkey from the Caspian Sea region, creating a greater energy reliance on Iran and its vast reserves. The crisis could in turn allow Tehran to exploit splits in the international community and use Russia as a powerful backer to advance its controversial nuclear programme.
In a sign of warming ties, Mr al-Assad – a wily political operator keen to play regional powers off against each other – said he fully backed Russia's pursuit of its "legal interests" in its fight with Georgia.
"On this issue we fully support Russia... Georgia started this crisis, but the West is blaming Russia," said the Syrian leader, who will meet with Dmitri Medvedev, the Russian president, during his two-day visit.
Syria and Israel recently confirmed they had been holding indirect talks to reach a peace deal after decades of hostility. Part of Syria’s motivation was to break the international isolation it has suffered for its strategic alliance with Tehran, and which has wrought serious damage on its economy. A closer alliance with a resurgent Russia, flush with petro-dollars, could afford Mr al-Assad a way out of any binding commitment. Some Israeli analysts even fear it could encourage Syria to try to take back the Golan Heights, captured by Israel in 1967, by force.
Moscow is expected to propose a revival of its Cold War era naval base at the Syrian port of Tartus on the Mediterranean, with some Russian reports even saying Moscow is already deepening it to accommodate a fleet of war ships. Russia may have similar ambitions for the port of Latakia, using Syria – which is in need of a powerful global backer – as a bridgehead for extending its regional influence.
The conflict in Georgia already sparked a mocking speech by Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, over the performance of Israeli-trained Georgian forces. One of the main Israeli military advisers there was reserve Brigadier General Gal Hirsch, who commanded a division in Israel’s inconclusive war with Hezbollah in 2006, and who resigned his commission afterwards
"The entire front line of the army's brass stepped down because of the war. Gal Hirsch, who was defeated in Lebanon, went to Georgia and they too lost because of him," taunted the Shia leader. "Relying on Israeli experts and weapons, Georgia learned why the Israeli generals failed … what happened in Georgia is a message to all those the Americans are seeking to entangle in dangerous adventures."
That Cold War rhetoric was echoed by Mr al-Assad, who also used the Georgian crisis as a stick to beat Israel. "I think that in Russia and in the world everyone is now aware of Israel's role and its military consultants in the Georgian crisis," he told the Russian newspaper Kommersant. "And if before in Russia there were people who thought these forces can be friendly then now I think no one thinks that way."

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