Elias Samo
The anniversary of the June 1967 war warrants reflection with regard to its impact on developments in the region. The present peace process between Arabs and Israelis is essentially an attempt to undo the war's damage.
It has been said that the only thing worse than losing a war is winning it. This is clearly applicable to the June war. For the Arabs, in addition to their territorial losses, there were two additional consequences of great magnitude. First, the impractical position they took with the three Khartoum no's: no peace, no negotiations and no recognition. Second was the defeat of the Arab nationalist movement, the beginning of its decline and the discrediting of the regimes symbolizing it on the one hand, and the beginning of the rise of both Islamism--an ideology competing with Arabism--and non-state military actors on the other. Furthermore, the Soviet Union's Arab allies discovered that Moscow would never supply them offensive weapons to threaten the existence of Israel. Such a development would precipitate an American-Soviet confrontation, something Moscow would not welcome.
Yet Israel, presumably the victor in the June war, was in fact the biggest loser. A concept developed in Israel that the Arabs had been vanquished and would not rise for a long time to threaten Israel. This led unfortunately to Israeli arrogance in dealing with the Arabs, and to the grabbing, annexing and settling of the occupied territories.
The purpose of the 1973 war was to reverse the consequences of the June war. Neither side could claim a clear-cut military victory. The real winner was the peace process. For the Arabs, there was a gradual move away from the Khartoum no's toward the yeses of UNSC resolutions 242 and 338. For Israel, it was the beginning of a move away from the arrogant concept of eternally defeated Arabs.
The first step toward peace was the Camp David agreement, which was supposed to have a domino effect on the rest of the Arab states. Since the major Arab military power made peace with Israel, the other Arab states would follow suit. The domino effect was finally fulfilled with the convening of the Madrid peace conference in 1991 that symbolized Arab resignation and the real beginning of the "land for peace" formula. In retrospect, though, from Syria's perspective Madrid was not fruitful since the late Hafez Assad played a major role in convening the conference but Syria got nothing while all the other players benefited.
Syrian-Israeli negotiations following the conference lasted nine years. The two sides resolved 85 percent of the contentious issues but the end result was no agreement. Then came eight years of a frozen peace process coupled with the emergence of many national and regional problems that complicated matters.
The question now is, what are the chances of success if negotiations resume? A realistic view would suggest that the Syrian-Israeli peace process has taken a giant step backward since its hopeful era during the 1990s. The issues then were simpler, mainly bi-national and the leaders in Damascus, Tel Aviv and Washington wanted peace and could make it. Now the process is not bi-national and no longer centers on Rabin's four legs of the table, nor is it certain that all three relevant leaders want peace and can make it.
For Syria, there are three red lines that cannot be crossed: the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty entailing total Israeli withdrawal, Rabin's commitment to withdraw to the June 4, 1967 line and the 85 percent of the agreed-upon issues that the Syrians would be eluctant to reconsider.
In Israel there is the notion among some that the Golan has been silent for decades, hence why tamper with it. And there is a weak and divided leadership with no clear vision except demanding of Syria to divest itself of a potentially nuclear Iran, a militarily victorious Hizballah and a politically victorious Hamas--demands that provide a prescription for failure.
As for the US, negotiations will get nowhere without Washington's full participation. No one, Turkey included, can provide what is needed for success except Washington: pressuring both sides, assisting in the security arrangements and providing billions in funds needed to complete the deal. Washington's participation is not forthcoming in view of Bush's hostile attitude toward the Syrian leadership.
Granted, it's a gloomy picture, but there is room for hope. The Israelis must get their act together and start preparing to resume negotiations based not only on the principles set forth in Madrid but also on what was accomplished in past negotiations. And they certainly can twist Bush's arm to come along; he will depart soon anyway.
Syria is here and will continue to be here and therefore can wait. But can Israel wait? Aren't there any more Jewish prophets or sages to tell the Israelis that time is not on their side if it ever was and to stop missing every opportunity to miss an opportunity to make peace? The writing is on the wall: demography, Islamism and resistance combined will spell doom for Israel. The progress of these three factors can't be stopped but it certainly can be slowed down.
In view of the not very promising Israeli-Palestinian negotiations--that in any case entail a long-range process--peace with Syria is short-range and doable. If concluded, it will certainly be followed by a peace agreement with Lebanon. Settling the two conflicts will provide positive input for a Palestinian-Israeli peace. It will also provide Syria with the incentive to push the Palestinian and Lebanese resistance groups toward moderation, to limit its relations with Iran to bilateral interests and to look for improved relations with Washington.-
Published 5/6/2008 © bitterlemons-international.org
Elias Samo is professor of international relations at American and Syrian universities.
The anniversary of the June 1967 war warrants reflection with regard to its impact on developments in the region. The present peace process between Arabs and Israelis is essentially an attempt to undo the war's damage.
It has been said that the only thing worse than losing a war is winning it. This is clearly applicable to the June war. For the Arabs, in addition to their territorial losses, there were two additional consequences of great magnitude. First, the impractical position they took with the three Khartoum no's: no peace, no negotiations and no recognition. Second was the defeat of the Arab nationalist movement, the beginning of its decline and the discrediting of the regimes symbolizing it on the one hand, and the beginning of the rise of both Islamism--an ideology competing with Arabism--and non-state military actors on the other. Furthermore, the Soviet Union's Arab allies discovered that Moscow would never supply them offensive weapons to threaten the existence of Israel. Such a development would precipitate an American-Soviet confrontation, something Moscow would not welcome.
Yet Israel, presumably the victor in the June war, was in fact the biggest loser. A concept developed in Israel that the Arabs had been vanquished and would not rise for a long time to threaten Israel. This led unfortunately to Israeli arrogance in dealing with the Arabs, and to the grabbing, annexing and settling of the occupied territories.
The purpose of the 1973 war was to reverse the consequences of the June war. Neither side could claim a clear-cut military victory. The real winner was the peace process. For the Arabs, there was a gradual move away from the Khartoum no's toward the yeses of UNSC resolutions 242 and 338. For Israel, it was the beginning of a move away from the arrogant concept of eternally defeated Arabs.
The first step toward peace was the Camp David agreement, which was supposed to have a domino effect on the rest of the Arab states. Since the major Arab military power made peace with Israel, the other Arab states would follow suit. The domino effect was finally fulfilled with the convening of the Madrid peace conference in 1991 that symbolized Arab resignation and the real beginning of the "land for peace" formula. In retrospect, though, from Syria's perspective Madrid was not fruitful since the late Hafez Assad played a major role in convening the conference but Syria got nothing while all the other players benefited.
Syrian-Israeli negotiations following the conference lasted nine years. The two sides resolved 85 percent of the contentious issues but the end result was no agreement. Then came eight years of a frozen peace process coupled with the emergence of many national and regional problems that complicated matters.
The question now is, what are the chances of success if negotiations resume? A realistic view would suggest that the Syrian-Israeli peace process has taken a giant step backward since its hopeful era during the 1990s. The issues then were simpler, mainly bi-national and the leaders in Damascus, Tel Aviv and Washington wanted peace and could make it. Now the process is not bi-national and no longer centers on Rabin's four legs of the table, nor is it certain that all three relevant leaders want peace and can make it.
For Syria, there are three red lines that cannot be crossed: the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty entailing total Israeli withdrawal, Rabin's commitment to withdraw to the June 4, 1967 line and the 85 percent of the agreed-upon issues that the Syrians would be eluctant to reconsider.
In Israel there is the notion among some that the Golan has been silent for decades, hence why tamper with it. And there is a weak and divided leadership with no clear vision except demanding of Syria to divest itself of a potentially nuclear Iran, a militarily victorious Hizballah and a politically victorious Hamas--demands that provide a prescription for failure.
As for the US, negotiations will get nowhere without Washington's full participation. No one, Turkey included, can provide what is needed for success except Washington: pressuring both sides, assisting in the security arrangements and providing billions in funds needed to complete the deal. Washington's participation is not forthcoming in view of Bush's hostile attitude toward the Syrian leadership.
Granted, it's a gloomy picture, but there is room for hope. The Israelis must get their act together and start preparing to resume negotiations based not only on the principles set forth in Madrid but also on what was accomplished in past negotiations. And they certainly can twist Bush's arm to come along; he will depart soon anyway.
Syria is here and will continue to be here and therefore can wait. But can Israel wait? Aren't there any more Jewish prophets or sages to tell the Israelis that time is not on their side if it ever was and to stop missing every opportunity to miss an opportunity to make peace? The writing is on the wall: demography, Islamism and resistance combined will spell doom for Israel. The progress of these three factors can't be stopped but it certainly can be slowed down.
In view of the not very promising Israeli-Palestinian negotiations--that in any case entail a long-range process--peace with Syria is short-range and doable. If concluded, it will certainly be followed by a peace agreement with Lebanon. Settling the two conflicts will provide positive input for a Palestinian-Israeli peace. It will also provide Syria with the incentive to push the Palestinian and Lebanese resistance groups toward moderation, to limit its relations with Iran to bilateral interests and to look for improved relations with Washington.-
Published 5/6/2008 © bitterlemons-international.org
Elias Samo is professor of international relations at American and Syrian universities.
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