International Herald Tribune
Alain Gresch
September 1, 2008
President Nicolas Sarkozy's visit to Damascus this month confirms the failure of his policy of isolating the regime of President Bashar al-Assad.
That policy began at the end of 2004, when Presidents George W. Bush and Jacques Chirac formed a common front, following the UN Security Council's Resolution 1559 of Sept. 2 of that year, which called for the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon and the disarmament of all militias - meaning mainly Hezbollah. Some months later, after the assassination of the Lebanese prime minister, Rafik Hariri, on Feb. 14, 2005, the Syrians were forced to withdraw from Lebanon and the UN set up an international commission of inquiry. The future of the Syrian regime looked increasingly uncertain. Bush and Chirac decided to crack down harder, boycotting it politically and punishing it economically. For the Bush administration, Syria was a part of the "axis of evil."
Three years - and a war - later, their policy has collapsed. This is partly because of Lebanon and partly because of their misreading of Syria's policy. In Lebanon, the clash was never between the "good guys" and "bad guys," it was between two alliances representing roughly half of the population. Hezbollah was allied with General Michel Aoun, the main leader of the Christian Maronites - something which didn't fit into Bush's vision. Any political solution means compromise and will have to take into account this balance of power; otherwise things will have to be resolved with guns (and the strongest, Hezbollah, will win).
So what was Syria's policy? To avoid taking military control of Lebanon again in the way it had done in the 1990s or in the beginning of this decade; to prevent Lebanon from being transformed into an opposition front against the Syrian regime (as some of the pro-Western Lebanese coalition wanted); and to keep the Lebanon question open (including the arming of Hezbollah) as a bargaining chip with Israel.
When these aims were realized with the Doha agreements between the Lebanese majority and the opposition, Damascus endorsed them without reservation.
Assad told me this summer that he wants to make peace with Israel. He is afraid for the future of the region, which is growing more socially conservative and sliding toward terrorism. To stop the country from becoming a fertile ground for terror, he said, you need development, culture, an educational system and dialogue. And you absolutely need peace. This is a fundamental difference from Iranian policy.
In May, Israel and Syria announced the opening of indirect negotiations, with the Turkish prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, as intermediary.
"After eight years of paralysis," Assad said, referring to the end of negotiations between the two countries in 2000, "after the war on Lebanon, after two attacks on Syria, there is no trust. We are probing Israel's intentions, we don't trust them and perhaps they don't trust us."
"We want to make sure that the Israelis are ready for peace." he said. "Ready to return the whole Golan."….
Alain Gresch
September 1, 2008
President Nicolas Sarkozy's visit to Damascus this month confirms the failure of his policy of isolating the regime of President Bashar al-Assad.
That policy began at the end of 2004, when Presidents George W. Bush and Jacques Chirac formed a common front, following the UN Security Council's Resolution 1559 of Sept. 2 of that year, which called for the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon and the disarmament of all militias - meaning mainly Hezbollah. Some months later, after the assassination of the Lebanese prime minister, Rafik Hariri, on Feb. 14, 2005, the Syrians were forced to withdraw from Lebanon and the UN set up an international commission of inquiry. The future of the Syrian regime looked increasingly uncertain. Bush and Chirac decided to crack down harder, boycotting it politically and punishing it economically. For the Bush administration, Syria was a part of the "axis of evil."
Three years - and a war - later, their policy has collapsed. This is partly because of Lebanon and partly because of their misreading of Syria's policy. In Lebanon, the clash was never between the "good guys" and "bad guys," it was between two alliances representing roughly half of the population. Hezbollah was allied with General Michel Aoun, the main leader of the Christian Maronites - something which didn't fit into Bush's vision. Any political solution means compromise and will have to take into account this balance of power; otherwise things will have to be resolved with guns (and the strongest, Hezbollah, will win).
So what was Syria's policy? To avoid taking military control of Lebanon again in the way it had done in the 1990s or in the beginning of this decade; to prevent Lebanon from being transformed into an opposition front against the Syrian regime (as some of the pro-Western Lebanese coalition wanted); and to keep the Lebanon question open (including the arming of Hezbollah) as a bargaining chip with Israel.
When these aims were realized with the Doha agreements between the Lebanese majority and the opposition, Damascus endorsed them without reservation.
Assad told me this summer that he wants to make peace with Israel. He is afraid for the future of the region, which is growing more socially conservative and sliding toward terrorism. To stop the country from becoming a fertile ground for terror, he said, you need development, culture, an educational system and dialogue. And you absolutely need peace. This is a fundamental difference from Iranian policy.
In May, Israel and Syria announced the opening of indirect negotiations, with the Turkish prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, as intermediary.
"After eight years of paralysis," Assad said, referring to the end of negotiations between the two countries in 2000, "after the war on Lebanon, after two attacks on Syria, there is no trust. We are probing Israel's intentions, we don't trust them and perhaps they don't trust us."
"We want to make sure that the Israelis are ready for peace." he said. "Ready to return the whole Golan."….
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