السبت، 20 سبتمبر 2008

Israel's initiative may not be enough

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Haaretz

By Amos Harel

The recent deluge of dramatic reports, albeit incomplete (due to censorship), have not sufficed to piece together the puzzle. Two or three times a week, there are sketchy reports of Hezbollah plans to attack Israeli targets abroad, sometimes noting that these attempts have already been foiled. What is happening now, in many places around the world, is nothing less than an Israeli counterterrorism offensive: a series of impressive successes that have so far kept the Lebanese organization from carrying out any resounding revenge attacks. And still, the average news consumer is in the dark.

Hezbollah and its patrons, Tehran and Damascus, still have an open account with Israel over three operations on Syrian soil: the bombing of a nuclear facility in northeastern Syria last September, the assassination of Hezbollah operations chief Imad Mughniyeh in Damascus in February, and the murder of Syria's liaison to Hezbollah, Mohammed Suleiman, in Tartus last month.

According to media reports, Israel was responsible for the first operation. It has neither confirmed nor denied responsibility for the second and has vigorously denied any connection to the last. But these nuances are of negligible importance to the other side.

Yesterday, another mysterious incident was added to the list: A Syrian opposition web site reported that the secretary of Hamas chief Khaled Meshal was assassinated in Homs. The identity of the perpetrator is not known, but it is clear that Syria is no longer a safe haven for terrorists. No wonder Meshal has been issuing reports, apparently untrue, that he has decided to move to Sudan.

Hezbollah's revenge program spans the globe. So far, intelligence warnings and signs of the group's operations have been reported in Central Asia, in "Muslim states without diplomatic relations with Israel" (where retired Israeli officers are nonetheless present), along the Lebanese border, in Sinai, in West Africa, in Canada and in South America. The warnings are also varied: kidnappings, attacks on embassies, an attempt to shoot down an Israeli aircraft, assassinations of former and current officials.

Last week's declaration by Defense Minister Ehud Barak revealed part of the story: "We have already, in conjunction with foreign authorities, thwarted at least two attacks in different corners of the globe," he revealed.

One can infer from this that Israel is now more willing than ever before to share detailed intelligence with foreign security agencies in order to avert terror attacks abroad. Like the Shin Bet security service with regard to Palestinian terror in recent years, the defense establishment is apparently no longer only guarding the gate, but is prepared to meet the enemy outside it. It is taking the initiative rather than merely reacting.

This effort has been bolstered significantly by Israel's understanding, with assistance from Argentina, of the modus operandi used by Hezbollah and Iran in the Buenos Aires terror attacks of 1992 and 1994. When one knows how Hezbollah is aided by both Iranian diplomats and members of the Shi'ite emigre community from Lebanon, it is easier to take preventive steps.

But all the Herculean security efforts abroad, including the extraordinary cooperation among security organizations that usually guard their intelligence jealously, may still not be enough. It must be acknowledged that despite all these efforts, Hezbollah could yet manage to carry out a significant attack.

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