Israels Strategic Straits

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By P. David Hornik
Front Page Magazine
Friday, August 22, 2008

With increasingly belligerent Russia accusing Israel this week of providing military aid to Georgia, Syrian president Bashar Assad is in Moscow for talks on possible strategic arms deals. It's no coincidence; Russia, which has at least kept up a pretense of weighing Israeli concerns about the strengthening of its foes, is now signaling a tougher line.

As for Assad, the sudden status as peace partner that Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert bestowed on him a few months ago already seems to be evaporating in the Hobbesian scramble.

On Tuesday Russia's deputy chief of staff Col.-Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsy told a Moscow press conference that "In 2007, Israeli experts trained Georgian commandos in Georgia and there were plans to supply heavy weaponry, electronic weapons, tanks and other arms at a later date, but the deal didn't work out."

Indeed, the "deal may not have worked out" because in the months leading up to the Russian-Georgian hostilities Israel had been rejecting new arms sales requests from Georgia. Russia is much bigger than Israel and, based on an assessment that a Russian-Georgian collision was imminent, Israel decided not to risk further piquing the bear.

A bear, though, that wants to be piqued-in other words, to fill the gap left by U.S. and Western strategic weakness-is a different matter. A state-certified Russian "analyst" told Syrian television that "The ...military assistance provided by Israel to Georgia in its war against Russia will affect...Russia's attitude toward Arab states. Russia will reexamine its ties with Israel, and it is not unlikely that Moscow will now decide to increase its military assistance to Arab countries in conflict with Israel, including Syria."

The "assistance" could reportedly run from installing highly accurate Iskandar missiles in Syria to building Russian military, naval, and air bases there. Russia is also expected to deploy its S-300 anti-aircraft missiles in Iran by early next year, and Syria is also said to be bidding for S-300s.

Further darkening the clouds in Israel's security environment is Hezbollah's growing consolidation of its dominant role in Lebanon, with the new national unity cabinet having asserted "the right of Lebanon, its people, its army and the resistance [Hezbollah] to liberate its land"-code for attacking Israel. Hezbollah has also been pushing an accord with Lebanese Salafist groups in a bid to ease Shiite-Sunni strife and further unite the country behind Hezbollah's aims.

The events led Olmert to send a clear warning to Beirut this week. During a visit to the headquarters of Israel's Home Front Command, he remarked that "In the Second Lebanon War we had much greater means and capabilities, which we avoided using since [during that war] we fought against a terror organization and not a country. In this context, if Lebanon turns into a Hezbollah state, we won't restrain our response."

Much depends on who's going to be leading Israel in the near future. In the primaries for Olmert's Kadima Party scheduled for next month, precipitated by Olmert's legal troubles, the frontrunners are current foreign minister Tzipi Livni and current transportation minister Shaul Mofaz. A victory-and success in forming a new coalition-by Livni, who has no background in security matters and has been a lackluster chief diplomat bending to U.S. and Western demands, wouldn't augur well. A government led by former chief of staff and defense minister, relatively hawkish Mofaz would offer more hope for functioning effectively in the Middle Eastern jungle.

A failure by either Livni or Mofaz to form a new government would mean new general elections-a test of whether the Israeli public has learned anything since the disastrous March 2006 vote that ushered in Olmert's government, particularly the fact that only leaders who understand where Israel is situated-a backward, volatile region where military achievements substitute for the lack of achievements in any other sphere-are fit to be at Israel's helm.

Israel's public and leaders also need to grasp that in the waning days of the Bush administration and with his successor still unknown, U.S. understanding for Israel's strategic concerns can hardly be taken for granted, and that the survivors in a jungle are those carrying the biggest sticks.

Fear of new Mid East 'Cold War' as Syria strengthens military alliance with Russia

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The Times

Kevin O’Flynn in Moscow and James Hider, Middle East Correspondent
August 21, 2008

Syria raised the prospect yesterday of having Russian missiles on its soil, sparking fears of a new Cold War in the Middle East. President Assad said as he arrived in Moscow to clinch a series of military agreements: “We are ready to co-operate with Russia in any project that can strengthen its security.”

The Syrian leader told Russian newspapers: “I think Russia really has to think of the response it will make when it finds itself closed in a circle.”

Mr Assad said that he would be discussing the deployment of Russian missiles on his territory. The Syrians are also interested in buying Russian weapons.

In return Moscow is expected to propose a revival of its Cold War era naval base at the Syrian port of Tartus, which would give the Russian Navy its first foothold in the Mediterranean for two decades. Damascus and Moscow were close allies during the Cold War but the Kremlin’s influence in the region waned after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Yesterday’s rapprochement raised the possibility that Moscow intends to re-create a global anti-Western alliance with former Soviet bloc allies.

Many in Israel fear that the Middle East could once again become a theatre for the two great powers to exert their spheres of influence, militarily and politically. And with Israel and the US providing military backing to Georgia, Russia appears set to respond in kind by supporting Syria.

Already, Israeli observers worry that the chaos in the Caucasus may disrupt gas supplies to Europe and Turkey from the Caspian Sea region, creating a greater energy reliance on Iran and its vast reserves. The crisis could in turn allow Tehran to exploit splits in the international community and use Russia as a backer to advance its nuclear programme. Russia has wooed Syria in recent years, as it has tried to increase its influence in the Middle East and increase arms sales.

Syria and Israel recently confirmed they had been holding indirect talks to reach a peace deal after decades of hostility. Part of Syria’s motivation was to break the international isolation it has suffered for its strategic alliance with Tehran. A closer alliance with a resurgent Russia could afford Mr Assad a way out of any binding commitment. Some Israeli analysts even fear that it could encourage Syria to try to take back the Golan Heights, captured by Israel in 1967, by force.

The Georgia conflict sparked a mocking speech with Cold War rhetoric by Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, the Hezbollah leader, over the performance of Israeli-trained Georgian troops. One of the Israeli military advisers there was reserve Brigadier-General Gal Hirsch, who commanded a division in Israel’s inconclusive war with Hezbollah in 2006, and who resigned his commission afterwards.

“Gal Hirsch, who was defeated in Lebanon, went to Georgia and they too lost because of him,” the Shia leader taunted. “Relying on Israeli experts and weapons, Georgia learnt why the Israeli generals failed.

“What happened in Georgia is a message to all those the Americans are seeking to entangle in dangerous adventures.”

Obama Adviser Offers Some Advice to Damascus

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The Sun

Obama Adviser Offers Some Advice to Damascus
Daniel Kurtzer Says Israel-Syria Negotiations Should Be Moved Along

By ELI LAKE: 20/8/2008

WASHINGTON — The next president, whether Republican or Democrat, will make a Syrian-Israeli peace agreement a priority only if the two sides, meeting now in Turkey, make substantial progress before the inauguration.
That is what a foreign policy adviser to Senator Obama told Syria's foreign minister last month while on a visit to Damascus. While the trip was not connected to the Obama campaign, Daniel Kurtzer nonetheless provided Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem with some advice of his own.
"I urged him to move ahead in the Israel-Syria negotiations as much as possible so that whoever is the next president would not start from too far down the track," Mr. Kurtzer, a former American ambassador to Israel, said yesterday in a phone interview. "I did not say anything about Obama or McCain. I said whoever is the next president is not going to want to inherit a process that isn't going anywhere."
Mr. Kurtzer was in the Syrian capital for a conference co-sponsored by the Law Society of England and Wales and the American Bar Association and arranged by the British Syrian Society. That last group is chaired by Dr. Fawaz Akhras, a London-based cardiologist and the father of the Syrian president's wife, Asma al-Assad. The parley was underwritten by a number of Syrian corporations and also by Petro-Canada, a Canadian oil concern.
The First International Lawyers Conference was held at the Four Seasons Hotel in Damascus between July 6 and 8; on July 22, Mr. Kurtzer joined the presumptive Democratic nominee for the Israeli-Palestinian Arab leg of his Middle East tour.
The adviser said he attended the event in part because he is on the board of the American Bar Association's Rule of Law Initiative, which works with jurists in countries that lack transparent and independent judiciaries. "We felt it was worthwhile," he said. "There was no hesitation on the part of foreign experts to say what's needed is to improve the rule of law, including independence of the judiciary. There was a little bit of push-back from the Syrians, but there was a debate among the Syrians."
"None of us thought we were being used or abused," he added. "But we will see over time."
The purpose of the conference, according to its program, was "not only to raise awareness on legal issues but also to assist members of the legal profession in Syria in the development of contacts and links with lawyers in other parts of the world."
A spokeswoman for the Obama campaign, Wendy Morigi, said: "Senator Obama values the expertise of Ambassador Kurtzer, but he is not a paid adviser, nor is he authorized to conduct talks with any government. Ambassador Kurtzer's trip was part of an ABA delegation on legal reform and had no connection with the campaign."
Mr. Kurtzer said he informed the campaign of his trip to Damascus and described his role as someone who gives advice to the campaign and the candidate from time to time on the Middle East. In this capacity, he was at the Illinois senator's side in Israel last month. "I don't do politics, I do policy," Mr. Kurtzer said.
A Levant expert with the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, Tony Badran, said the conference Mr. Kurtzer attended in Damascus was part of a Syrian campaign to build up good will with the West. "The British Syrian Society is closely connected to the family" of President al-Assad's father-in-law, he said.
Mr. Badran said the conference was similar to efforts last month by a nongovernmental organization, Search for Common Ground, and the International Crisis Group to bring what he called "official-unofficial Syrian intellectuals to come to Washington and lobby on behalf of the regime."
"They failed to meet with anyone in the administration," he said. "But it's not a secret that the Syrians are openly banking on Barack Obama. It's not surprising that they would build bridges in advance and do this through the window of the peace process."
President Bush's Syria policy toward has been bifurcated: While Secretary of State Rice invited the Syrians to the Annapolis peace conference in November, the administration in the past has accused the Syrians of letting Al Qaeda-affiliated jihadists enter Iraq and more recently of attempting to build a nuclear reactor with the help of North Korean engineers.
The deputy communications director for the McCain campaign, Michael Goldfarb, quipped yesterday: "If one of Senator Obama's advisers has been to Damascus, we just wonder how many have been to Tehran."
Ms. Morigi responded, "That's ridiculous. Of course no advisers have been to Tehran."
The New York Sun reported in February that a supporter of Mr. Obama, Zbigniew Brzezinski, and a finance chairman for Senator Clinton's presidential campaign, Hassan Nemazee, met with Mr. Assad in Damascus as part of a delegation sponsored by the RAND Corporation. When Secretary of State Powell visited Damascus over the objections of many Bush administration conservatives after the invasion of Iraq, in 2003, Senator McCain said in interviews that the visit was appropriate.

Coping with the Challenge of Iran

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The Washington Institute for Near East Policy

PolicyWatch #1395: Special Forum Report
Coping with the Challenge of Iran

Featuring Shaul Mofaz and Nicholas Burns
August 5, 2008

On August 1, 2008, Shaul Mofaz, deputy prime minister and transportation minister of Israel, and Nicholas Burns, who until recently was undersecretary of state for foreign affairs, addressed a special policy forum at The Washington Institute. Mr. Mofaz and Ambassador Burns, who both led the U.S.-Israel strategic dialogue focusing on Iran, spoke about the challenges caused by Iran and its nuclear program. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.

SHAUL MOFAZ

Iran's nuclear program is geared toward attaining military weapons capability -- something that constitutes an existential threat to the state of Israel. With such ability, Iran not only could attack Israel directly, it could also increase financial and material support under its nuclear umbrella for terrorist organizations such as Hamas and Hizballah, as well as for Syria. Iran has already provided Hizballah with long-range missiles that can hit most Israeli territory, and one day, Iran could also use this power against the United States and Europe.

In the next year and a half, there will be a new reality in the region. From Israel's point of view, an Iranian nuclear breakthrough is unacceptable. No enrichment should take place anywhere on Iranian soil, and at present, it is estimated that Iran will be capable of enriching low-grade uranium in 2009, and will be able to do so at military levels by 2010.

Iran's main strategy is to buy time, and so far, it is succeeding. Time is a decisive element in changing the picture and removing the Iranian threat. Based on Tehran's past actions, most anticipate that Iran will turn down the recent offer made by the Europeans and the United States at the Geneva meeting, and will choose instead to wait out the end of the current U.S. administration. The window of opportunity to influence Iran is becoming smaller, and is about to close. It is a race against time, and Iran is winning.

A strategic approach, therefore, is necessary to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear capabilities. Several conclusions were reached during the July meeting of the U.S.-Israel strategic dialogue, one being that the world must present a united front against Iran. This includes international compliance with imposing financial sanctions on Iran, as well as barring the trade in conventional weapons with the regime.

Diplomacy should to be the primary method for halting Iran's nuclear program. In order for diplomacy to succeed, pressure on Iran's weaknesses must be drastically increased. Diplomacy, however, has its limits. The primary duty of Israel, like all states, is to protect the lives of its citizens; therefore, all options are on the table. If Israeli, U.S., or European intelligence gets proof that Iran has succeeded in developing nuclear weapons technology, then Israel will respond in a manner reflecting the existential threat posed by such a weapon. Israel takes Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad's statements regarding its destruction seriously. Israel cannot risk another Holocaust.

Israel also understands that its quarrel is with the current Iranian regime, not with the Iranian people. Only thirty years ago, Israel had excellent diplomatic relations with Iran, including extensive security cooperation. The current regime is not only hostile toward Israel, but also toward the rest of the world.

NICHOLAS BURNS

The Middle East is becoming the world's most important region, and is increasingly the focus of U.S. foreign policy. Current issues include fighting the war in Iraq, resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and preventing Hizballah and Syria from undermining democracy in Lebanon. In addition, the United States is concerned with the oil trade and its improving relations with moderate Arab states such as Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Over time, however, Iran has become the regional focus.

Iran is the most difficult and complex challenge in the Middle East today. It is a primary supporter of regional terrorist groups such as Hamas, Hizballah, and Islamic Jihad, and it also funds the Shiite militant groups fighting U.S. forces in Iraq. Evidence also suggests that it has connections to the Taliban. U.S. policy should be geared toward preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear capability, preferably through negotiations and by working with the UN Security Council.

The United States ought to pursue three initiatives to deal with Iran: tougher sanctions, more diplomacy, and developing a bilateral relationship. Although the United States and Europe have been maintaining strict sanctions on Iran, the trade void is being filled by other nations, particularly Russia, China, Japan, South Korea, and the United Arab Emirates. In order for sanctions to be successful, these nations need to participate fully, especially since financial sanctions are necessary for diplomacy to work.

Now is the time for diplomacy, not war. Based on the evaluations of Mohamed ElBaradei and the International Atomic Energy Agency, we have reason to believe there is still time for diplomacy. Diplomacy requires the parties to be tough-minded and creative. U.S. representation at the recent Geneva meeting was a positive step, and Condoleezza Rice should be lauded for breaking with twenty-eight years of American conventional wisdom when she advised negotiating with Iran. That diplomatic opening is still there, and it would be folly to give it up now. All options must be kept on the table in order to force Tehran to respond to international objections. At this point, however, war with Iran is neither inevitable nor desirable.

A significant difficulty with Iran is that the relationship between Washington and Tehran, unlike Pyongyang and Havana, has been completely nonexistent. The United States has not had any permanent media correspondents, businessmen, or diplomats in the country since the Islamic Revolution of 1979. As a result, the two countries know nothing about each other. Another difficulty is the history of grievances between the two, such as the Mossadeq coup and the Iranian hostage crisis. In order to develop relations, however, both need to stop focusing on this legacy of bitterness and look forward to the future.

The situation may change when Iran holds presidential elections in 2009, because the country is not a political monolith. Although Ayatollah Ali Khamenei exercises a great deal of control, there are still relative differences between him, Ahmadinezhad, Ali Larijani (speaker of the Iranian parliament), and other influential Iranians, such as former presidents Ali Akbar Rafsanjani and Muhammad Khatami.

Iranians have been equivocating, even though reasonable proposals have been on the table for two years. The United States backed Russia's proposal that Iran be provided with nuclear power plants and fuel, thereby invalidating the claim that the world wants to deny Iran atomic energy. The Iranians need to answer the questions being asked about its nuclear program by the international community. At the present, the ball is in Iran's court.

This rapporteur's summary was prepared by Lauren Cohen.

UNIFIL chief seeks meeting with Defense Minister Barak, in vain

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Haaretz

By Barak Ravid

The commander of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), Maj.-Gen. Claudio Graziano, complained last week that Defense Minister Ehud Barak refuses to meet with him to discuss the situation on the Lebanese border and implementing UN Security Council Resolution 1701, a diplomatic source said.

UNIFIL's commander accused Israel of violating the resolution by flying over Lebanon, refusing to help remove unexploded cluster bombs fired during the Second Lebanon War and failing to withdraw from Ghajar village.

"I've been asking for a meeting with Barak for six months, but they keep putting me off," Graziano reportedly told Dan Carmon, acting head of Israel's delegation to the UN, at a meeting between the two last week.

The source said Graziano has been complaining that he hasn't been able to meet Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi either. The only senior defense officials willing to meet him were the head of the IDF Planning Branch, Brig. Gen. Amir Eshel, and GOC Northern Command Gadi Eisenkot. Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni met Graziano about a year ago.

Barak has been campaigning strongly against Resolution 1701, which ended the Second Lebanon War. He has been telling the public and foreign diplomats repeatedly that it has been a failure and a serious miscalculation by Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Livni. Barak says Resolution 1701 has collapsed and UNIFIL has failed to prevent Hezbollah from accumulating more power.

If this is true, it is strange that Barak wouldn't meet Graziano to protest on Israel's behalf and explain its demands, the source said. "It may not solve anything but would probably lead to a better understanding of Israel's security needs."

Graziano rejected Carmon's accusation that UNIFIL was not providing the Security Council with accurate reports on Hezbollal's growing strength south of the Litani. He said there was no proof Hezbollah was growing stronger in UNIFIL's area, and that Israel has shown UNIFIL no intelligence to this effect.

Graziano denied that Hezbollah was violating the Security Council resolution. He said Israel was doing so by flying over Lebanon and infringing its sovereignty. Also, despite UNIFIL's requests, Israel refuses to disclose the precise location of unexploded cluster bombs.

In addition, Israel has not pulled out of Ghajar, a village straddling the border between Lebanon and the Golan, as Resolution 1701 stipulates, he said.

Times: Fear of new Mid East 'Cold War' as Syria strengthens military alliance with Russia

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James Hider, Middle East Correspondent
20/8/2008

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad headed to Moscow today to discuss an expansion of his pariah state’s military cooperation with Russia.
The trip is raising fears that the new Cold War that has erupted in the Caucasus will spill over into the Middle East, long a battleground between East and West, and crush tentative hopes for peace.
"Of course military and technical cooperation is the main issue. Weapons purchases are very important," said Mr Assad. "I think we should speed it up. Moreover, the West and Israel continue to put pressure on Russia."
Israel, like its main sponsor America, has developed close military ties with Georgia in recent years, with defence contractors supplying training and equipment to the small, US-backed state.
As Syria renews its Soviet-era close ties with Moscow, many here fear that the Middle East could once again become a theatre for the two great powers to exert their spheres of influence, militarily and politically, in the volatile region.
And with Israel and the US providing military backing to Georgia, Russia appears set to respond in kind by supporting Syria.
Already, Israeli observers worry that the chaos in the Caucasus may disrupt gas supplies to Europe and Turkey from the Caspian Sea region, creating a greater energy reliance on Iran and its vast reserves. The crisis could in turn allow Tehran to exploit splits in the international community and use Russia as a powerful backer to advance its controversial nuclear programme.
In a sign of warming ties, Mr al-Assad – a wily political operator keen to play regional powers off against each other – said he fully backed Russia's pursuit of its "legal interests" in its fight with Georgia.
"On this issue we fully support Russia... Georgia started this crisis, but the West is blaming Russia," said the Syrian leader, who will meet with Dmitri Medvedev, the Russian president, during his two-day visit.
Syria and Israel recently confirmed they had been holding indirect talks to reach a peace deal after decades of hostility. Part of Syria’s motivation was to break the international isolation it has suffered for its strategic alliance with Tehran, and which has wrought serious damage on its economy. A closer alliance with a resurgent Russia, flush with petro-dollars, could afford Mr al-Assad a way out of any binding commitment. Some Israeli analysts even fear it could encourage Syria to try to take back the Golan Heights, captured by Israel in 1967, by force.
Moscow is expected to propose a revival of its Cold War era naval base at the Syrian port of Tartus on the Mediterranean, with some Russian reports even saying Moscow is already deepening it to accommodate a fleet of war ships. Russia may have similar ambitions for the port of Latakia, using Syria – which is in need of a powerful global backer – as a bridgehead for extending its regional influence.
The conflict in Georgia already sparked a mocking speech by Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, over the performance of Israeli-trained Georgian forces. One of the main Israeli military advisers there was reserve Brigadier General Gal Hirsch, who commanded a division in Israel’s inconclusive war with Hezbollah in 2006, and who resigned his commission afterwards
"The entire front line of the army's brass stepped down because of the war. Gal Hirsch, who was defeated in Lebanon, went to Georgia and they too lost because of him," taunted the Shia leader. "Relying on Israeli experts and weapons, Georgia learned why the Israeli generals failed … what happened in Georgia is a message to all those the Americans are seeking to entangle in dangerous adventures."
That Cold War rhetoric was echoed by Mr al-Assad, who also used the Georgian crisis as a stick to beat Israel. "I think that in Russia and in the world everyone is now aware of Israel's role and its military consultants in the Georgian crisis," he told the Russian newspaper Kommersant. "And if before in Russia there were people who thought these forces can be friendly then now I think no one thinks that way."

Big Russian flotilla led by Admiral Kuznetsov carrier heads for Syrian port

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DEBKAfile Exclusive Report

August 21, 2008

Russia's Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier heads for Mediterranean
As the West awaits Moscow’s threatened reprisal for the treaty installing American missile interceptors at Redzikowo, on Poland’s Baltic coast – signed in Warsaw Wednesday - the Kremlin is striking back in the Middle East – hence Russian president Dimitry Medvedev’s honeyed words of reassurance to Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert in a call he made to Jerusalem Wednesday, Aug. 20.

DEBKAfile’s military sources disclose that a powerful Russian naval contingent, led by the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov , left Murmansk on the Barents Sea Aug. 18 to dock at the Syrian Mediterranean port of Tartus Saturday, Aug. 23. It includes the Russian Navy’s biggest missile cruiser Moskva and at least four nuclear missile submarines.

At the Black Sea resort of Sochi, Syrian president Bashar Assad told reporters Thursday, Aug. 21, that he is considering a Russian request to deploy missiles in his country in view of Russian-Western tensions over the Georgian conflict, which he said had polarized East and West anew.

Assad signaled he would also be representing Tehran’s interests in his talks with Russian leaders. Jordan’s King Abdullah is on his way to join them later in the day.

Before the Russian flotilla departed Murmansk, Assad is reported by our sources as having given the nod for Tartus port’s conversion into a permanent Middle East base for Russia’s nuclear-armed warships.

Assad’s arrival coincided with a visit by a large Syrian military delegation Thursday at the Russian weapons manufacturing giant, the Kalinin Machines Plant, east of Moscow. DEBKAfile’s military sources report that this plant makes sophisticated anti-air missile systems, including the S-300 and the BUK M, for which Damascus is bidding.

The Syrian ruler has said he is seeking closer military cooperation with Russia. The deal emerging from his visit is expected to cover the Russian Navy’s use of Tartus in return for a mutual defense accord providing Syria with a Russian nuclear umbrella and generous terms for his arms purchases.

Aug. 17, DEBKAfile first revealed Russia’s planned nuclear military deployments in the Middle East and Baltic to punish America for its missile deal with Poland and Georgia's attack in South Ossetia. They would included the installation of Iskandar surface missiles in Syria and Kaliningrad.